(no subject)
Jun. 17th, 2009 10:53 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ineffabellethis is a good account of things in Iran (or in Tehran anyway) by Robert Fisk here, one of the few "official" journalists that I trust:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm
what is most interesting to me is this part:
"My suspicion is that [Ahmadinejad] might have actually won the election but more like 52 or 53 per cent. It's possible that Mousavi got closer to 38 per cent.
But I think the Islamic republic's regime here wanted to humiliate the opponent and so fiddle the figures, even if Ahmadinejad had won.
The problem with that is they're now going to claim they're going to need a recount. If the recount is to actually give Mousavi the presidency, someone is going to have to pay the price for such an extraordinary fraud of claiming Ahmadinejad won 30, 40, 50 per cent more than he should have done.
You've got to remember as well, on the election night, if the count was correct it meant that they would have had to have counted five million votes in two hours." And they don't have automatic voting machines, it's largely paper ballots there.
This is what I believe right now too. I think something very fishy is going on there, at the top, behind closed doors. There is some sort of split I believe in the Guardian Council, and various old school power factions are waging a struggle, using the people as their personal "armies".
Even if A-jad won, the announcement of his victory and the official count are suspicious, not only in their numbers, but in the timing of everything. It's almost as if they wanted to either demonstrate that they could come up with any numbers they want to, and get away with it, or they wanted this situation to occur.
I wouldn't be surprised if the victory announcement came unexpectedly for A-jad himself.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm
what is most interesting to me is this part:
"My suspicion is that [Ahmadinejad] might have actually won the election but more like 52 or 53 per cent. It's possible that Mousavi got closer to 38 per cent.
But I think the Islamic republic's regime here wanted to humiliate the opponent and so fiddle the figures, even if Ahmadinejad had won.
The problem with that is they're now going to claim they're going to need a recount. If the recount is to actually give Mousavi the presidency, someone is going to have to pay the price for such an extraordinary fraud of claiming Ahmadinejad won 30, 40, 50 per cent more than he should have done.
You've got to remember as well, on the election night, if the count was correct it meant that they would have had to have counted five million votes in two hours." And they don't have automatic voting machines, it's largely paper ballots there.
This is what I believe right now too. I think something very fishy is going on there, at the top, behind closed doors. There is some sort of split I believe in the Guardian Council, and various old school power factions are waging a struggle, using the people as their personal "armies".
Even if A-jad won, the announcement of his victory and the official count are suspicious, not only in their numbers, but in the timing of everything. It's almost as if they wanted to either demonstrate that they could come up with any numbers they want to, and get away with it, or they wanted this situation to occur.
I wouldn't be surprised if the victory announcement came unexpectedly for A-jad himself.
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(no subject)
Date: 2009-06-17 04:42 pm (UTC)I think there's something to this. The peoples' sentiment is clearly real: you don't get a million people to come out for an astroturf protest, you just don't. But there is a power struggle going on in the upper echelons which is being played out here too. I think this has a lot to do with why the police and army seem to be falling in with the protesters -- they are not getting clear direction from the top. So the military leadership is involved with whatever is going on, and may actually be getting purged.